A classic Wall Street yarn, concerning a young
man who was in the early stages of learning to be a professional
speculator goes something like this. The young man had a problem,
so he went to an elderly gentleman noted for his shrewd investment
judgment, for advice. The young man had taken on quite an extensive
line of stocks, but the market looked a bit over-valued and so
he was thinking that his positions carried too many risks. He wondered
if he shouldn't perhaps sell. He was so worried about it that he
was having trouble sleeping.
The old man's advice was simple and direct: "Sell" he said. "Sell
back to the sleeping point." Although there is no doubt that
this advice smacks of ambiguity, there is a simple wisdom in
it. We may safely assume that neither the young man nor his elder
adviser knew which way the market was going, but both were aware
that the market was sufficiently shaky to cause legitimate worry.
Translated into somewhat more orthodox investment terms, the
advice meant - Sell enough of your stocks so that a market collapse
won't destroy you, but keep enough so that if your fears turn
out to be groundless, and the market rises, you'll still profit
to some extent - in the meantime, get some sleep.
At first glance, it may seem a bit cynical on the old man's
part not to outline for his young disciple an exact and detailed
course of action. But he couldn't be honest and at the same time
guarantee that he knew exactly what action might turn out to
be best. Furthermore, the young man didn't want someone to tell
him precisely what to do. All he wanted was some help in easing
the pressure and the help he received was clearly sensible.
How to Find the Sleeping Point
In a real sense, investment formulas are designed to help you
in the same way that the old man's advice helped his young friend
- they inject an element of caution in your investing when caution
seems advisable, they reduce the provision for caution when risks
seem relatively low and permit you to benefit when prices rise.
In addition, once you incorporate a formula into your investment
program, it works more or less automatically, allowing you to
sleep nights in the full knowledge that you are continuously
hedged against various unforeseen possibilities.
But just as the investment sage left it up to the young man
to decide exactly what his "sleeping point" might be, you can
select a formula appropriate to your own temperament, financial
circumstances and proclivity to insomnia. Any formula can be
adjusted to suit the needs and preferences of any investor.
Although formulas are designed to give un-hedged, unambiguous
and unbiased indications for action, the investor should not
feel that he is surrendering all personal control over his investments
when he adopts a formula. The reason behind this logic is clear.
It's because each investor selects the formula that will fit
his own individual comfort level. A formula doesn't try to tell
you what to do - it merely helps you do what you are already
doing more profitably. For example, formulas cannot tell you
which stocks to buy or currency to trade.
The whole premise of using formulas is based on the fact that
those using them are normally quite sophisticated and that they
know what kind of investment vehicle they are interested in,
how to select them and where to go for advice in their particular
area(s) of interest. However, by supplementing their knowledge
with considerations of the equally important questions of when
to own and in what quantity - formulas can supply a valuable
added dimension to their investment results and assist in the
management of their portfolio on a more professional level.
Along this same line, it is worth mentioning that although the
true purpose of a formula is to supply the investor with an investment
policy which is definite in its instructions at all times, you
need not feel that you must follow the formula precisely in order
to profit from it. You cannot, of course, ignore it altogether
if you expect to benefit from it, but you can profitably use
it as a touchstone or a general guide without swearing eternal
allegiance to its dictates. You might, for example, want to use
a formula, but also desire to increase or decrease your risks
at various times for a variety of reasons. Your use of the formula
will show you how far you are departing from your original plan
and will give you a well-ordered program to come back to when
you are ready.
This article may be reproduced only in its entirety.
Kevin Erickson is a contributing writer to:
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