What is my investment goal?
How much time do I have to attain this goal?
Methods of saving for a down payment on a house differ greatly
from saving for retirement. The reason for this lies in the factoring
of time. Over short periods of a few years, individual companies
and the stock market as a whole can experience dramatic fluctuations
which in no way represent longer-term trends. Because of this
possibility, a smaller percentage of your portfolio should be
allocated into stocks as the time for cashing in your investments
draws near. Conversely, the longer the time period you have to
invest, the more aggressive your portfolio should seek higher
returns.
How much do I initially have to invest?
How much can I afford to consistently add later?
Einstein described compounding as “The Eighth Wonder
of the World” and for good reason. Being able to earn interest
on your interest allows investments to increase exponentially
faster than with simple interest. A one-time investment of $5000
earning 10% interest compounds to a total of over $54,000 after
25 years. Using simple interest, it would take over 95 years
to reach the same amount. Naturally, the larger your initial
investment and the more you can afford to add later on, the more
you can expect to gain in returns.
Am I carrying any high-interest debt, such as on a credit
card?
Before saving for future events, you should consider your present
finances. Paying off any high-interest loans function as an “automatic” return.
Writing a check to Visa to pay down your debt may not feel as
satisfying as starting a nest egg, but by eliminating those 22%
interest payments, you have effectively “made” a
22% return. Although you need not completely eliminate your debts,
getting such payments into a reasonable area should be a more
pressing priority.
This fiscal reckoning is also a good time to examine budgeting
and expenditures. Look for unneeded or overpriced purchases,
and consider the feasibility of paring them down and saving the
extra money. Unused gym memberships, that $5 whipped mocha-hazelnut
cappuccino, and extra cable channels all add up. The true cost
of these and all other purchases involves understanding the “time
value of money”, but for now it should suffice to say that
$5 added to the previously mentioned investment account compounding
10% for 25 years turns into $54.17.
What is my risk tolerance?
What will my investing style be?
These questions lead us to selecting individual investments.
Consider your investment timetable for when you’ll need
the money, recognizing that more conservative selections should
be made the shorter the window. Everyone’s risk tolerance
is different; while one person may feel comfortable with small-cap
biotechs another may need a blue chip to feel equally sound.
Analyzing the risk to reward ratio here is a good first step.
The more risk you take on, the more you should expect to get
in return if your investment pays off. The inverse is also true:
the more stable an investment, the less return one should expect.
Government-backed I Bonds pay over 6%, but involve tying up money
for years in order to fully benefit from them. While this gives
you one target, the average return of the broader market indices
is about 11% per year. There are two primary schools of thought
about investing: growth and value.
Growth
Growth investing is a higher-risk strategy which focuses on
finding smaller companies poised to rapidly grow earnings. Stocks
here tend to be micro-caps or small-caps, and the occasional
mid-cap (under $10 billion). In their younger lives, many of
the well-established companies of today found themselves considered
here (Think of Apple Computers (AAPL) or Starbucks (SBUX)). Growth
companies can be found in many different sectors, although such
companies often have similar traits. A growth company usually
has a unique product or service to offer which can fundamentally
change how business is done. When found early enough in their
growth cycles, these companies have the potential to return enormous
profits to investors.
Value
Value plays usually are found in larger companies, although
the strategies used to find them can be applied to smaller corporations
as well. Looking for value stocks is similar to looking for values
in a store: find a good product at a price below what you would
normally expect to pay. These bargains are often found in the
form of companies which have been unfairly beaten down through
overselling. Finding value stocks usually involves using a discounted
cash flow model (DCF) to find a company’s intrinsic value.
This is the form of investing advocated by Benjamin Graham, and
popularized by Warren Buffett.
GARP
GARP, or Growth At Reasonable Price, is a combination of the
above forms. As the name implies, the focus is finding growing
companies trading at reasonable prices. Quick measures of this
include the PEG ratio (Price to Earnings to Growth) and Forward
P/E. Although not a specific style, GARP is utilized by many
investors because of its flexibility. The average, diversified
portfolio will have many GARP-type stocks in it.
Once you know your goals, the amount your going to invest, your
relatively debt free and know your risk tolerance it's time to
look at the market and start thinking about selecting stocks.
Getting Started: Learning the Market and Selecting Stocks
If you were going to spend several thousand dollars on a refrigerator
or television, you would thoroughly research the market for those
goods to find the product which best suited your needs. Investing
is no different. Before buying into a company, you should be
well-acquainted enough with it to give a short presentation.
Knowing the basics of how a company operates, what it sells,
how it makes money, how much money it makes, and what kind of
growth the company is expected to experience are all crucial
questions that any investor should be able to answer.
Developing a better understanding of the stock market is a long,
but hopefully rewarding, process. Immediately investing in stocks
with real money, however, is equivalent to taking a test without
being introduced to the material. Formerly called “paper
trading”, beginning investors would normally spend several
months tracking their stock picks without having real money on
them.
Thanks to technology, you can now find sites that automate (for
free) the process of tracking price changes for you on the internet.
Simulated investing is a risk-free way of beginning to understand
market fluctuations and the forces driving them. Examining these
trends will payoff in the future, as an increased understanding
of the stock market can only help you on your path to building
wealth.
Once you become comfortable picking your own stocks, you can
still continue to “paper trade” online, as it offers
the opportunity to explore and experiment with other investing
styles. Gordon Gekko, the famed villain in Wall Street played
by Michael Douglas, said “Information is the most valuable
commodity I know of”. Ignoring for a moment that the movie
ended with indictments for insider trading, the statement is
true: you will not regret being an informed and intelligent investor.
The market is constantly changing, but by learning the ropes
of investing you too can pull off a “One Up on Wall Street”.
Jim Stevenson, AKA:"Im Not Warren Buffet" is a staff writer and
can be reached on the forums of
http://www.eInvesting.com an
Investing forum and Stock Market Simulator.