This is a common occurrence. You heard people say
that 'the real estate sector is hot' or 'the internet sector is
growing rapidly' or 'let's buy the oil sector now. Energy price
will rise again' next year. Sounds familiar? It is. This is because
these people encouraged you to invest in specific sectors.
What is wrong with sector investing? There is a common believe
that rising tide will lift all boats. Therefore, when internet
search is hot, then every companies in the field from Google
to Looksmart will rise two to three folds, right? Wait a minute.
Have you looked at the graph of Looksmart lately? If you haven't,
here is the two year graph of Looksmart Ltd. Let me show you
another example. Everybody knows about the rising energy price,
most notably oil. Therefore, if you look at the five year chart
of energy companies from Chevron and the like, you would expect
similar upward trajectory movement, right? Wrong. Take a look
at a five year chart of an energy company IvanHoe Energy Inc.
here.
So, should we look at sectors when investing? Absolutely. Sector
search is very useful during your preliminary research. Auto
sector is down. This might be a good place to find stock bargains,
right? Yes. Should we blindly invest in any stocks in the auto
industry? The answer is no. This goes back to the purpose of
an investor. Investor exists to make the greatest return of assets
possible while minimizing risk. The sensible way to do that is
to compare investment alternative and pick the investment vehicles
that may give investors the highest return. In the case of stock,
we are looking at the expected profit of a company with respect
to its stock price. This is the basis of the return on investment
of stock investors.
Therefore, once you identify that the auto sector is a bargain,
your homework continues. You should find companies that can give
you higher return than the risk free ten year treasury bond.
Currently, the ten year is yielding 4.52%. Since 4.52% is risk
free, we need to find stocks that can yield more than 4.52% for
the foreseeable future. Yield on a common stock can be calculated
by dividing earning per share (EPS) with the stock price. If
you invert this ratio, you will get the most commonly discussed
ratio in the investment community, Price Earning (P/E) ratio.
Sector search is very useful in identifying future investment
prospect. However, do not just blindly invest in stocks in specific
sector. In the long run, stock price is correlated with the amounts
of profit it can produce. Stock price does not correlate to the
performance of other peers in the industry.
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